The Endorsement Primary

There is an alternative way of predicting who will be the party's nominee in a Presidential Race. And no, it's not polls. It's the endorsement count from current and former politicians. If a few important and influential politicians back your campaign, they can sway a lot of their supporters towards you. And that could make the difference. Some candidates deliberately want to get the support of a few famous faces, and not that of the general public. Let's see how this applies to 2016.

On the Republican side, Donald Trump leads in the polls. By a lot (as he would say). But there has not been a single politician in Congress, or within any higher levels of state government who backed him. Not one. He got one former Virginia representative and a few state legislators from a variety of states, but no one important.

Jeb Bush on the other hand leads the endorsement primary. By a lot. Apart from two former Presidents and First Ladies and a Vice President, he also has the support of 26 current members of the House of Representatives, 4 senators and hundreds of smaller statewide politicians. Their support is not counted in the polls, but on voting day it has been proven that these people can influence more than any last minute TV or Radio ad. So Bush could enjoy a late surge on polling day. And he definitely needs one.

Some of the other hot shot endorsements candidates are seeking, are that of the former nominees. Again, Bush has the family's backing. But Romney hasn't backed anyone yet. You can't blame him, he is going to wait till the field clears out more and make a choice then. If he chooses in September 2015, it could go very bad for him by March 2016, and that would be an embarrassment for his brand. But Romney is seen as a very trusted and smart man, and who he backs will greatly benefit from it. Rubio, Christie and Bush are regarded to be his favorite candidates. Although in reality, he should run again. 

Sarah Palin's influence is often discredited, but she is one powerful lady. And not just in politics, but also in the media. Though she has previously said supportive things of Donald Trump, it's not clear if she would go that way. Huckabee or Cruz could also win her approval. John McCain though endorsed Lindsey Graham early on, an achievement that the Senator was loudly proud of. It was pretty much the only good thing going for his campaign. Though he quit two weeks ago as expected. Sure McCain's support, the 2008 nominee, gave him credibility, but everyone knew that this one was more about friendship, as the two veteran senators go back decades in their friendship. Yet, it only shows that having influential friends in Washington can pay off, and that is one of the reasons why people like Ben Carson and Donald Trump don't have any endorsements because they don't really know anyone from D.C. that well. It will be interesting to see who McCain will endorse now.

Furthermore, candidates know that celebrities could be even more important and influential in 21st Century politics. Obama certainly knew that in 2008. Many people think that Oprah Winfrey won the election for him. Believe it or not, much more people pay attention to what people like Katy Perry have to say than Chris Christie. If this is  good or not, you decide, but certainly is true. This is why Hillary Clinton was quick to snatch up Hollywood this time around, because a supporting tweet from Ms. Perry will reach 75 million people. Now this is what free advertising is really about. Bernie Sanders too has lots of celebrity backers ranging from Sarah Silverman to Daniel Craig, and from Dick van Dyke to Mark Ruffalo. Celebrities tend to support Democrats, as there is a negative social stigma around Republicans for some reason. But some of the famous Republican celebrities are Kid Rock, Tim Allen, Chuck Norris, Babyface and Tila Tequila. There a lot more, but they like to keep their party alignments a secret to maintain their brand image. Understandable. 

Back to the politicians now - Lindsey Graham wasn't influential in the polls, but his support may be crucial for the other candidates in South Carolina. Many of the state's local politicians and donors remained loyal to him out of courtesy, but now that he is out, the other candidates can snatch them up. But if Graham were to endorse someone, that would go a long way in the state that is voting 4th amongst the 50. Sam with Rick Perry in Texas, where it's not between Cruz and the Bush dynasty on the ranches. Cruz especially needs their support, because in Congress he is seen as a radical, so few members have actually endorsed him. Unlike Rubio, who seems to have the momentum amongst the politicians in the country.

However it must be stated that while many think that endorsements are more important than polls or actual people, it is not always the case. Some people actually think that they are irrelevant in the early voting states as it is not a fair representation of the whole voting contest. Or in 2012 when Rick Santorum was Romney's strongest rival he barely had any endorsements compared to the eventual nominee. But in the polls he wasn't that far behind at all. Unlike now.

But regardless, endorsements look good and are generally very important.

And now with Iowa less than a month away, many candidates are trying to lock down key supporters. Rubio just landed Trey Gowdy of South Carolina. A big win for him. If Cruz can get a few more in Iowa, he is virtually guaranteed to win there. And in New Hampshire where it is a four or five way race, it could be the deciding factor. Bernie Sanders also needs a few more to strengthen his case against Hillary.

Keep your eyes on the news people.

This is an original material of Finchley 1959.