Cruz Wins, Democrats tie in Iowa

Chris Carlson/AP

After months of campaigning, Iowa finally voted yesterday! On the Republican side of the Iowa Caucus, Texas Senator surprised Donald Trump. While the Democrats pretty much tied, as Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders only received slightly less support than former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, but it is still unclear who won, as a recount is very much possible.

All the latest polls, even by Anne Selzer, predicted a Donald Trump victory, even though they all acknowledged that Ted Cruz was not far behind. But in real life, not many people expected Cruz to win, even though if there were serious questions of whether or not Trump supporters are real and if they will actually turn out to vote. Well they were real, but Cruz had more of them. Trump almost even slipped down to 3rd place, as it was confirmed that Rubio's late surge was real. His 23.1% is an extremely good show in a state like Iowa.

This was a huge loss for Trump. More precisely his ego. For months he has been touting that he is ahead of everyone. And by a lot. And he seemed to be, but no more. This is more of a psychological loss for him, as now many of his supporters will question if he can actually.

New York Times

Trump is not used to loosing. So what happened now? Well we can never know. Maybe his boycott of the debate backfired, or people finally came to sense and realized that Trump may not be the man who represents their values. But it will be very interesting to see what happens in New Hampshire now. In the next state to vote, there really were no questions about his lead. It really was huge, but now he will have to campaign hard to maintain it. 

New Hampshire will also be interesting for Marco Rubio. In many ways, it is him who was the biggest winner of the night, and it was proven that the so called "Establishment Republicans" are not dead, and that they are still a force to be counted with. And what a force. This was the last needed sign, that the party is finally getting together behind one candidate. We think that at least Christie should leave the race now, to give Rubio even more votes, but he won't as both him, Bush and Kasich focused their efforts on New Hampshire. But Marco Rubio will now have a huge momentum, Marcomentum, and he can win New Hampshire. Trump will fall back, Cruz will get a boost too, but the Establishment voters are now likely to flock behind Rubio, as even influential South Carolina Senator Tim Scott is reportedly ready to endorse him. That will help him with the Establishment and moderate voters, the black voters and will also give him a boost going into South Carolina. 

Now the Cruz-Rubio fight for the nomination seems to be a real possibility. Rand Paul had a better night than most people would have thought, coming in at 5th. There is absolutely no reason why he should quit, as in New Hampshire his chances now are rising. Carson did slightly better than expected, but it is still unclear what his place in the race is. Bush, Kasich and Christie performed badly, but that was expected as they focused on New Hampshire over Iowa. For Fiorina, New Hampshire will be the last hope. And why Gilmore and Santorum are still in the race is the biggest question of the day. Actually not, no one cares about them anyways.

J. David Ake/AP

On the Democrats' side, it is a virtual tie. There is no clear winner, whatever anyone says. It can be argued that both sides won and lost at the same time. Though perhaps the biggest winner is Hillary Clinton. But not in the traditional winner. She is a winner because she didn't loose. And that is not a winner in real life. But it still shows the vulnerability of the Clinton campaign, and how she is just not able to connect to vast amounts of the electorate. More trouble is ahead of her, starting with New Hampshire.

While Bernie didn't exactly win, he is still viewed as the main winner of the night on the Democratic side. When he announced his campaign, no one knew of him, he polled around 2-3% of the vote. And now he gained 50% of the vote, and tied with a politician that has been around for decades and has a name recognition around the world like nobody. The Sanders Revolution is here, and it is here to stay. He is still expected to win New Hampshire with even about a 20-25% margin, and now South Carolina and Nevada should be close too. Voters in those state now realize that his rise wasn't a myth like Trump's, and will now consider voting for him. Many people in those states liked him, they just didn't think it was worth it to vote for him, as everyone thought that he could never beat Hillary. Well, they were wrong, and now more parts of the country will Fell the Bern. Bernie is still vulnerable though, and that is why he has now made it a priority to connect to minority voters, who are often thought to be long time supporters of the Clintons. But now, the only thing certain is uncertainty, and the fact that Bernie has a clear momentum that could drag this race well into the summer.

Hillary has got to stop underestimating her rival, and prepare for a real battle because Bernie is not going anywhere.

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After their disappointing results, Former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee and former Maryland Governor Martin O'Malley quit the race. Their departure, and what it means for the race will be discussed in a separate article later tonight. Stay tuned!

This is an original material of Finchley 1959.