Will Cameron stay or go?

Really, it’s too early to tell. Even though the election is only a month and a half away, the people can’t seem to decide. The latest official polls put the Labour party at 35%, and the Conservatives at 33%. This is however well within the statistical error.

What this means is that anything could happen on May 7th, and that creates huge uncertainty.

The incumbent Conservative Party has been cutting Labour’s lead slowly but steadily over the past years. However, recently they suffered some major blows. Several Conservative MP's have deserted to UKIP, or have been caught handling illegal funds and engaging in unacceptable campaign methods. Furthermore, the government’s immigration plan backfired, and Cameron’s stubbornness to attend the live televised debates have all been bad for the party.

The economy is performing rather well; the NHS seems to be okay for now. But what will decide this election is immigration. It is the most talked about topic. Most people say that it has to be cut, because things are going to go wrong. Many fear that another terrorist attack could happen and that immigrants are doing more harm to the social and cultural system of the country, than they are contributing to the economy. It is this fear that allows UKIP to have momentum, and which makes the Conservatives scramble. Due to public demand, they have introduced several new laws, trying to toughen immigration. However, in February, it was revealed that it is still three times higher than their goal. This is a major issue for them, especially before an election.

That’s not to say that Labour is doing well either. They have had to deal with some reckless MPs too and the party is doing terrible in Scotland, where the SNP keeps rising. What this means is even if they beat the Conservatives, they will still be unable to form a Government by themselves. However, it doesn’t look like there is much hope for any coalition for them as the SNP has ruled it out. They need to do something great, and they need to do it quick. But the party is divided, and many still think that Ed Miliband, their leader is not the right man.

The SNP therefore could have an influence but it is just too much of a gamble for them, after their failed attempt at independence last September. The Green Party is present, but with 5%, there is still not much they can do. And the Liberal Democrats? Well they will just try to lay low, and hope that the results in May will not totally destroy them and their supposed values.

What will be the deciding factor than? That’s easy. UKIP.

Nigel Farage’s party five times the support than in 2010. At 15%, they are currently the third biggest party, and most people would agree that they are politically much closer to the views of David Cameron. UKIP is rising, and gaining ground, especially after they got into the parliament with their first MP due to the recent by-elections. Their biggest problem is how people view them, and most think of them as racists. Furthermore, many analysts say that at the last minute, a lot of their supporters will change their minds and not go for the radical party. We’ll have to wait and see. Nevertheless, they are still undoubtedly the party that everyone is looking at, as they will probably enjoy a clear, and well-deserved third place.

That’s a good sign for Cameron, as he will likely be able to form a coalition with UKIP but if that were to happen, Westminster and the future of British politics will remain gloomy.

And that is not just because of the weather.

First Appeared 1st April 2015, Richmond Free Press (www.richmondfreepress.co.uk)