Sanders and Trump to win in Iowa

PDA America

Finchley 1959 has been covering the 2016 US Presidential Election since the candidates have been announcing their intentions from early last year onwards. Now, as the final 24 hours of campaigning takes place across the state of Iowa before voting, we are ready to make our predictions. On the Republican side, we are ready to call Iowa for Donald Trump over Texas Senator Ted Cruz. The Hawkeye State's Democrats though, are more likely to choose Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders, over former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, as their nominee. 

Here's why.

Donald Trump seems to be a sure bet. Ted Cruz was ahead in December, but by now he has slipped. He even has to worry about Rubio now, as the Florida Senator is surging in Iowa. But Cruz is still likely to have a safe second place, at least. His supporters are more reliable than Trump, so they will probably turn out in higher numbers. Nevertheless, while we are calling Iowa for Trump, Cruz is still within shooting distance, and a late surge could give it to him.

Trump, as well as Bernie who we will talk about later, relies heavily on first time voters and young people, who tend to be the same for the most part. It is also a big question if people will actually vote for someone like Trump. It is one thing to say over the phone that you support him, but when people are in the booth, will they actually vote for him? Or will they get some of their sense back and vote for a traditional candidate? If they do that, Cruz will probably receive most of those votes, but the "Establishment" candidates will pick of some votes too for sure.

So in overall, we are Predicting a Trump, Cruz, Rubio result. We also think that there is a very good chance that Huckabee and Santorum will quit after Iowa.

On the Democratic side it is a virtual tie. The last polls indicate that Hillary might have a slight edge, but her lead is well within the margin of error. So Iowa could be feeling the Bern. Bernie Sanders has a very strong grassroots and enthusiastic campaign, that has strong chances. But as with Trump, it all comes down to voter turn out, and if those first time voters actually turn up. Hillary also has a problem with turn out. People are a lot less enthusiastic about supporting her, but her biggest concern is with the older voters. Among them, she is very popular, but the weather conditions in Iowa are pretty bad right now, and old people generally tend to stay home if it is very cold and snowing, so she might loose many votes that way. It will definitely be close. As for Governor O'Malley, he just needs to pick up as many votes as he can, certainly above close to 10%, to prove to his voters and donors that he can still have a role in this race. 

Polls could always be wrong, as it has been proven several times before, so it is actually more than possible that Hillary might even win with 5 points or more, and if we would have to be, we would bet on her! But we are risk takers, and feel that a Bernie win in Iowa would be better for the whole race! Ann Selzer, who is the pollster for the Des Moines Register is very good at what she does, and always produces reliable data. But even she is usually off about 3 or 4% in many polls, and Clinton has a smaller lead than that, so it will indeed be cringeworthy night. 

Although in fact, statistically Hillary clinton has better chances to win in Iowa, to be the Democratic nominee and to be the next President, but again, we do believe in Bernie's grassroots campaign, and we hope that the levels of excitement will turn into many votes for the Sanders campaign.

Hillary Clinton should be confident though about her chances, especially after the New York Times just endorsed her. That was expected, but it still is a big victory for her! It comes at a good time, because this week her emails were getting a lot of negative attention again, as more questionable informations were found in them, and as the FBI has made some progress in determining if charges should be filed against her.

Iowa only gives a small percentage of delegates for the eventual Convention, but it is crucial in terms of creating momentum. If Trump can win in Iowa, he could take it all the way to be honest. And Bernie needs to win here. Also a strong Rubio performance, could knock out Kasich, Christie and Bush out of his way, as the party might finally all stand behind him, so that he could take Cruz and Trump down. So in many ways the most important indicator out of Iowa will be in the Republican "establishment race".

In New Hampshire it seems to be all about Rubio and Kasich now, but Bush and Christie are very close behind. Kasich can be happy about many statewide and the New York Times endorsement, while Rubio is expecting a good result in Iowa. So New Hampshire could even be more exciting than Iowa in many ways! And of course after New Hampshire, we are expecting a few more candidates to drop out, starting with Gilmore!

So everyone get ready, because after months of waiting, it all starts tomorrow!

This is an original material of Finchley 1959.