The Summer of Trump is over, but he is still here

Although he may not admit to it, Trump is slipping. In the latest national and statewide polls, he has been slowly losing his ground, most often to Ben Carson. In Michigan for example, Carson already overtook him, but the extravagant businessman still remains atop most polls. But if the momentum or current tide has its ways, and water usually does, that will change soon. There is nothing to suggest that this is only a temporary blip in Trump's system, although he has always surprised the audiences.

When Trump launched his campaign, he was largely ignored. But he soon got all the headlines due to his controversial remarks, and god knows why, but he just kept rising in polls. He did everything in the opposite way, and it worked. Establishment candidates who followed the playbook, Rick Perry and Scott Walker bled out, and Trump kept on roaring ahead of everyone.

Then came the first debate, and everyone still loved him. He was so different, and people wanted change. So they supported him. It was the Summer of Trump.

But now it is almost October, and he is slowly ready to hibernate in his cave. In the second debate he didn't do badly, but he didn't do well either. The others became immune to his attacks, and they attacked back. Especially Carly Fiorina, and he wasn't really prepared to it. It's like the GOP field cured the Trump disease and developed their antidote. 

And Trump is slowly dying, although it will be a long and slow demise. 

In the latest national poll, he only leads by 1%. Same in North Carolina, and only with 3% in Pennsylvania.

Voters are used to his unconventional and unorthodox way of politics, they finally realised who they supported so far, and they feel a bit of a shame. So they went out and looked for other candidates. Other outsiders. And they found Ben Carson and Carly Fiorina.

Ben Carson and Carly Fiorina share a lot of the same characteristics that Trump does. But they are more acceptable to support. Trump may not agree with it, but it is true.

Carson is nicer, and he has a more gentle face as well. He sells practically the same thing, but with a nicer package. Plus he is a minority, and in 2015 that gives him an advantage. Just don't mention that Muslims are bad people. That was a big mistake, and we'll see where that leads him. But Republicans need him to court some of the African-American vote, especially since Obama took away even more from the GOP.

While Carly Fiorina is also a successful businessperson who many would trust with the economy. She is also very composed and knowledge, and a very effective public speaker too. Plus she is also a woman, and many Republicans rally behind her to get the female votes and to challenge Hillary later. She would be a perfect Vice Presidential candidate in this sense.

As a whole, it can be concluded that Trump is not doing anything wrong so to say, he is just not doing anything new either. It's all the same, people have seen it already, and are moving on to candidates who have a similar rhetoric, but with a nicer package. They feel less ashamed of supporting them, than Trump.

The Summer of Trump is over, but it is still likely to be the Fall of Outsiders. Because of Bernie too. And the anti-establishment camp is not going away either. They just got John Boehner to resign, and more heads could fall soon. It is going to be interesting.

So we predict that Trump will slip in the polls, but he will still stay in the race for a long time. He will fight back, and no one should expect him to give up!

This is an original material of Finchley 1959.